Activity: Academic talk or presentation types › Invited talk
Will North Korea completely give up its nuclear weapons programme? Just a year ago the talk was when, not if, the United States and North Korea would go to war. In recent months President Trump and Chairman Kim led a dramatic turnaround in bilateral relations. How was this possible and how durable is the thaw? The paper will discuss the recent improvement in North-South relations. As it examines the rationale for North Korea to change course in early 2018, the paper shows that North Korean society is changing although the combination of policies and practices may lead to unintended consequences. Enrichment is a great thing, but it also creates dislocation, new inequalities, differences and ultimately some discontent. Containing and channelling the latter will be a challenge. Next, the paper turns to South Korea, paying attention to both the role of the country’s leadership and public opinion. Lastly, it embeds the analysis in broader regional dynamics.