Could a third wave of Covid be more serious than UK’s first two?

Press/Media: Expert Comment

Description

Article writted by Nicola Davis in the Guardian based on Ackland/Wallace WSS model 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/07/could-a-third-wave-of-covid-be-more-serious-than-uk-first-two-delta-variant

Reported as...

Prof Graeme Ackland, of the University of Edinburgh, whose team has verified the Imperial College Covid models, said his calculations suggest the R number is currently far above 1 in all areas of Britain.

“I think what is likely to happen is there will be a third wave of cases that will be just as big as the second wave,” he said, adding he did not think that would translate into hospitalisations and deaths on a par with, or exceeding, the second wave."

With hindsight, this proved to be pretty accurate with respect to the Delta wave and the Omicron waves.    Betteridge's Law applied.

Period7 Jun 2021

Media contributions

1

Media contributions

  • TitleCould a third wave of Covid be more serious than UK’s first two?
    Degree of recognitionNational
    Media name/outletGuardian
    Media typePrint
    Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
    Date7/06/21
    DescriptionProf Graeme Ackland, of the University of Edinburgh, whose team has verified the Imperial College Covid models, said his calculations suggest the R number is currently far above 1 in all areas of Britain.

    “I think what is likely to happen is there will be a third wave of cases that will be just as big as the second wave,” he said, adding he did not think that would translate into hospitalisations and deaths on a par with, or exceeding, the second wave. “But I say that with a very high level of uncertainty,” he said. “There will still be a sizeable peak.”
    Producer/AuthorNicola Davis
    PersonsGraeme Ackland
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