Describing, characterising and predicting winter respiratory accident and emergency attendances, hospital and intensive care unit adminssions and deaths

During the pandemic, we created a national COVID-19 surveillance platform called EAVE II(Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19),which has supported Scotland’s response to COVID-19.
EAVE II contains de-identified healthdata forpeople livingin Scotland. These data are housed in Public Health Scotland’s (PHS)Trusted Research Environment(TRE), where they are analysed by trained and accredited analysts. Our aim is to extend EAVEIIto try and find out who is most at risk of serious outcomes if they develop an infection intheir airwaysover the winter period. With the NHS likely to come under severe pressurethis winter,there is an urgent need to know what emergency care people are likely to need. By identifying those at highest risk of serious outcomes needing, for example, hospital admission or use of a ventilator, it may be possible to intervene early to improve outcomes and reduce the pressure on our NHS. This projectwill provide key data urgently required by policymakersand NHS leaders. We have a Scotland-wide team already in place and permissions to analyse the data. We also have the privilege of excellent, trusted relationships with health system leadersacross Scotland and the UK.Our UK-wide Patient Advisory Group has been involved in all aspects of the development of this proposal, and this close working will continue as we deliver and disseminate the findings from this work.