Epstein Barr Virus: Paving the way for a vaccine using epidemiological and mathematical modelling approaches

Epstein Barr Virus (EBV), a lymphocryptovirus, permanently infects >90% of humans. EBV is linked to 1% of global cancers, with different sites of disease being more common in different places. Why only a small fraction of infected individuals get cancer is poorly understood. No anti-EBV vaccines are currently licensed, although several candidates are in pre-clinical development. Information derived from large cohorts (e.g. on the implications of remaining EBV negative throughout the life course) and mathematical models of the transmission of EBV infection will be critical to create target product profiles to aid vaccine development and adoption.

Prior to extensive vaccine investment a feasibility and scoping exercise of currently available data and resources is required. We therefore:

1) Developed a transmission dynamic model for EBV infection to aid the development of a target product profile for a future vaccine.

2) Undertook a systematic review to scope out the available evidence as to when EBV infection is acquired globally and the factors associated with this (critical for vaccine roll-out).

3) Undertook a second systematic review of the risk factors for EBV-associated cancers across different settings and the quality of this evidence.