Triggering instabilities in materials and geosystems

  • Zaiser, Michael (Principal Investigator)
  • Main, Ian (Co-investigator)

Project Details


EU project on the title. Our role was to calculate the probabilities of earthquakes being triggered by previous ones. In doing so we also developed new methods of assessing uncertainties in the background rate.

Layman's description

The aim of the project was to examine the probability of one event triggering another - for example snow avalanches by skiers, earthquake aftershocks etc.

Key findings

The background rate is highly uncertain for large events, and this can be modelled by a Poisson process.
As a consequence the 'characteristic' earthquake model ofen used for earthquake hazard analysis is not justified by current data.
Triggering probabilities can be pinned down with sufficient data.
Effective start/end date1/01/0731/12/09


  • EU government bodies: £79,643.00
  • EU government bodies: £94,376.00


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