A Bayesian analysis of heart rate variability changes over acute episodes of bipolar disorder

Bipolar disorder (BD) involves autonomic nervous system dysfunction, detectable through heart rate variability (HRV). HRV is a promising biomarker, but its dynamics during acute mania or depression episodes are poorly understood. Using a Bayesian approach, we developed a probabilistic model of HRV changes in BD, measured by the natural logarithm of the Root Mean Square of Successive RR interval Differences (lnRMSSD). Patients were assessed three to four times from episode onset to euthymia. Unlike previous studies, which used only two assessments, our model allowed for more accurate tracking of changes. Results showed strong evidence for a positive lnRMSSD change during symptom resolution (95.175% probability of positive direction), though the sample size limited the precision of this effect (95% Highest Density Interval [−0.0366, 0.4706], with a Region of Practical Equivalence: [-0.05; 0.05]). Episode polarity did not significantly influence lnRMSSD changes.