A critical analysis of prognostic factors for survival in intermediate and high grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Scotland and Newcastle Lymphoma Group Therapy Working Party

Between 1979 and 1987 the Scotland and Newcastle Lymphoma Group registered 972 adults with Working Formulation high or intermediate grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Clinical, pathological and investigational data were recorded prospectively on a computer database allowing analysis for prognostic factors. We have derived prognostically important characteristics and have tested prospectively the validity of the prognostic index on a geographically distinct sub-set of patients from the Edinburgh/Borders clinics. Multivariate analysis showed the following factors to be important in declining order of power; advancing age, worsening performance status, CNS/liver involvement, abnormal white cell count, 'B' symptoms and advancing clinical stage. Patient individual scores allowed them to be aggregated into one of three distinct prognostic groupings separated by arbitrary cut-points into a Best Group (39%) where the median survival exceeds 5 years (53% alive at 5 years), an Intermediate Group (30%) with median survival of 21 months (21% alive at 5 years), and a Worst Group (31%) whose median survival is 7 months (8% alive at 5 years). Similar prognostic group separations occurred when analysis was confined to: patients younger than 70 years; patients treated with initial chemotherapy; patients treated with initial radiotherapy; patients within any of the major pathological sub-groups.