A fast algorithm for calculating an expected outbreak size on dynamic contagion networks

Jessica A. Enright, Rowland R. Kao

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Calculation of expected outbreak size of a simple contagion on a known contact network is a common and important epidemiological task, and is typically carried out by computationally intensive simulation. We describe an efficient exact method to calculate the expected outbreak size of a contagion on an outbreak-invariant network that is a directed and acyclic, allowing us to model all dynamically changing networks when contagion can only travel forward in time. We describe our algorithm and its use in pseudocode, as well as showing examples of its use on disease relevant, data-derived networks. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)56-62
Number of pages7
JournalEpidemics
Volume16
Early online date24 May 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2016

Keywords

  • Network modelling
  • Contagion on networks
  • TUBERCULOSIS
  • EPIDEMICS

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