A Regional, Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Model of Individual Acceptance of Climate Change Adaptation Measures

Sascha Holzhauer, Friedrich Krebs, Andreas Ernst

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Climate change and its consequences are to attract much attention onmany levels. Understanding the processes of individual adaptation as well as public reaction to and evaluation of policy defined adaptation strategies in this matter is a challenging field of research. We address this issue by developing a spatially explicit multi-agent simulation model for the Northern Hesse region located in the centre of Germany. Agents represent households that are grouped according to their social differentiation by lifestyles. In addition to geographically differentiated, demographicaleconomic data, simulations are based on empirically gained data on individual's perceptions of both local opportunities and restrictions that are derived from several scenarios of climate change. We focus on an explicit representation of the individual perceptions of climate change impacts through e.g. immediate climate perception or its media coverage, opinion formation by exchange through social networks or experienced limitations in personal behavioural options and achievable goals. These perceptions differ in their impact on an actor's overall satisfaction also depending on its lifestyle. Several domains of behaviour like individual transportation, health and compliance with legal and informational instruments are integrated. As a result we expect the identification of anxious or dissatisfied population groups that require additional adaptation measures and such where current and planned strategies perform well. Results will be used to inform policy makers and stakeholders about the interplay of barriers and incentives regarding the individual action of adaptation to climate change and their trajectories until 2030.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 6th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Keywords

  • climate adaptation, agent-based simulation, individual perception and acceptance, scenario analysis, social networks

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