A transfer strategy for power output estimation of wind farm at planning stage based on SVR model

The conventional wind farm (WF) power generation modelling method highly relies on wind hindcast produced by record time-series data or numerical weather modelling. However, estimating production at future sites is challenging in the absence of local wind monitoring. To address this, a data-driven WF modelling and model transfer strategy is proposed in this work. It considers the challenge of how to transpose metered data from existing operational WFs to sites that might feature as a prospective site for a new WF. By modelling 14 WFs distributed across Scotland using a machine learning (ML) approach, this study proved that it was possible to effectively model metered production at a site using modelled wind speed and direction. In addition, this study also found that when the latitude difference between two WFs is less than 0.2 degrees and the distance is less than 50km, two WFs in non-mountainous areas can share an ML
model. The results of the shared ML model remain superior to the results of the given power curve from manufacturers, after adjusting the results by the ratio of the power curve in these two WFs. The WF model transfer strategy investigated in this work offered a novel approach to transposing WF production estimates to new sites and appeared to offer better value than simple power curves, which is of importance at the early planning stage for sites selection, although it would likely not fully replace detailed micrositing modelling as are well established in the industry.