African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal and highly infectious haemorrhagic disease that has spread to all provinces in China – the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork. Here, we use an input-output (I-O) model, partial equilibrium theory and a substitution indicator approach for handling missing data to develop a systematic valuation framework for assessing economic losses caused by ASF outbreaks in China between August 2018 and July 2019. We show that the total economic loss accounts for 0.78% of China’s GDP in 2019, with impacts experienced in almost all economic sectors through links to the pork industry and a substantial decrease in consumer surplus. Scenario analyses demonstrate the worst cases of pig production reduction and price increase would trigger 1.4% and 2.07% declines in GDP, respectively. These findings demonstrate an urgent need for rapid ASF containment and prevention measures to avoid future outbreaks and economic declines.
|Early online date||27 Sep 2021|
|Publication status||E-pub ahead of print - 27 Sep 2021|
- African Swine Fever
- economic loss evaluation
- IO model
- substitution indicator estimation
- consumer surplus