African swine fever outbreaks in China led to gross domestic product and economic losses

Shibing You*, Tingyi Liu, Miao Zhang, Xue Zhao, Yizhe Dong*, Bi Wu, Yanzhen Wang, Juan Li, Xinjie Wei, Baofeng Shi*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal and highly infectious haemorrhagic disease that has spread to all provinces in China – the world’s largest producer and consumer of pork. Here, we use an input-output (I-O) model, partial equilibrium theory and a substitution indicator approach for handling missing data to develop a systematic valuation framework for assessing economic losses caused by ASF outbreaks in China between August 2018 and July 2019. We show that the total economic loss accounts for 0.78% of China’s GDP in 2019, with impacts experienced in almost all economic sectors through links to the pork industry and a substantial decrease in consumer surplus. Scenario analyses demonstrate the worst cases of pig production reduction and price increase would trigger 1.4% and 2.07% declines in GDP, respectively. These findings demonstrate an urgent need for rapid ASF containment and prevention measures to avoid future outbreaks and economic declines.
Original languageEnglish
JournalNature Food
Early online date27 Sep 2021
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 27 Sep 2021

Keywords

  • African Swine Fever
  • economic loss evaluation
  • IO model
  • substitution indicator estimation
  • consumer surplus

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