An equilibrium model of the African HIV/AIDS epidemic

Jeremy Greenwood; Philipp Kircher; Cezar Santos; Michele Tertilt

doi:10.3982/ECTA11530

An equilibrium model of the African HIV/AIDS epidemic

Jeremy Greenwood, Philipp Kircher, Cezar Santos, Michele Tertilt

School of Economics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice‐theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions, namely, ART, circumcision, better condoms, and the treatment of other STDs. The efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework complements the insights from epidemiological studies and small‐scale field experiments.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1081-1113
Number of pages	73
Journal	Econometrica
Volume	87
Issue number	4
Early online date	25 Jul 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA11530
Publication status	Published - Jul 2019

Keywords

art
circumcision
condoms
disease transmission
epidemiological studies
HIV/AIDS
knowledge about HIV
Malawi
marriage
policy intervention
search
small field experiments
STDs
sex markets

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10.3982/ECTA11530

GreenwoodEtalE2019AnEquilibriumModelOfTheAfricanHIV/AIDSEpidemic
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Greenwood, J, Kircher, P, Santos, C & Tertilt, M 2019, 'An equilibrium model of the African HIV/AIDS epidemic', Econometrica, vol. 87, no. 4, pp. 1081-1113. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA11530, which has been published in final form at https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/2019/07/01/equilibrium-model-african-hivaids-epidemic. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
Accepted author manuscript, 1.04 MB

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An equilibrium model of the African HIV/AIDS epidemic

Abstract

Keywords

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