An equilibrium model of the African HIV/AIDS epidemic

Jeremy Greenwood, Philipp Kircher, Cezar Santos, Michele Tertilt

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice‐theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions, namely, ART, circumcision, better condoms, and the treatment of other STDs. The efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework complements the insights from epidemiological studies and small‐scale field experiments.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1081-1113
Number of pages73
JournalEconometrica
Volume87
Issue number4
Early online date25 Jul 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2019

Keywords

  • art
  • circumcision
  • condoms
  • disease transmission
  • epidemiological studies
  • HIV/AIDS
  • knowledge about HIV
  • Malawi
  • marriage
  • policy intervention
  • search
  • small field experiments
  • STDs
  • sex markets

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