An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections

G. Shi*, J. Ribbe, W. Cai, T. Cowan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract / Description of output

The majority of climate models project a winter rainfall reduction over south-eastern Australia (SEA), while some show a tendency for a summer rainfall increase. The dynamics for these rainfall changes are not clear. Using outputs from a climate model, we show that a summer rainfall increase is consistent with a large Tasman Sea warming promoting convection, and an upward trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) promoting onshore flows; these processes dominate over a rainfall decrease from an El Nino-like warming pattern. In winter, similar effects from a Tasman Sea warming and an upward SAM trend operate along Australia's east coast, however, the rain-reducing impact of an Indian Ocean Dipole-like warming pattern dominates. In both seasons, the upward SAM trend causes a rainfall reduction over southern Australia. Summer rainfall over north-western Australia is projected to decrease, due to an unrealistic relationship with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Possible uncertainties are discussed.

Original languageEnglish
Article number02702
Number of pages6
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume35
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 Jan 2008
Externally publishedYes

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

  • INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE
  • EL-NINO
  • VARIABILITY
  • MODE
  • CIRCULATION
  • CLIMATE

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