Abstract / Description of output
The majority of climate models project a winter rainfall reduction over south-eastern Australia (SEA), while some show a tendency for a summer rainfall increase. The dynamics for these rainfall changes are not clear. Using outputs from a climate model, we show that a summer rainfall increase is consistent with a large Tasman Sea warming promoting convection, and an upward trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) promoting onshore flows; these processes dominate over a rainfall decrease from an El Nino-like warming pattern. In winter, similar effects from a Tasman Sea warming and an upward SAM trend operate along Australia's east coast, however, the rain-reducing impact of an Indian Ocean Dipole-like warming pattern dominates. In both seasons, the upward SAM trend causes a rainfall reduction over southern Australia. Summer rainfall over north-western Australia is projected to decrease, due to an unrealistic relationship with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Possible uncertainties are discussed.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 02702 |
Number of pages | 6 |
Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
Volume | 35 |
Issue number | 2 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 16 Jan 2008 |
Externally published | Yes |
Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)
- INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE
- EL-NINO
- VARIABILITY
- MODE
- CIRCULATION
- CLIMATE