Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Electricity Demand in Thailand

S. Parkpoom; Gareth Harrison

doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2008.922254

Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Electricity Demand in Thailand

S. Parkpoom, Gareth Harrison

School of Engineering

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Abstract / Description of output

The rise in temperatures induced by climate change may have important implications for Thailand’s electricity demand. This paper investigates how changing climate will affect Thailand’s daily, seasonal, and long-term electricity demand. Regression models are applied to capture daily load patterns across each month in the year. Temperature projections from the UK Hadley Centre climate model are then used to assess hourly sensitivity to changes in mean temperatures and diurnal temperature range. These are combined with four representative socioeconomic scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to project absolute changes in Thailand’s electricity demand. The specific climate and socioeconomic scenarios considered here indicate that mean annual temperatures in Thailand will rise by 1.74 to 3.43°C by 2080, implying increases in Thai peak electricity demand of 1.5%–3.1% in the 2020s, 3.7%–8.3% in the 2050s, and 6.6%–15.3% in the 2080s.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1441-1448
Number of pages	8
Journal	IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Volume	23
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2008.922254
Publication status	Published - Aug 2008

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10.1109/TPWRS.2008.922254

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Cite this

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title = "Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Electricity Demand in Thailand",

abstract = "The rise in temperatures induced by climate change may have important implications for Thailand{\textquoteright}s electricity demand. This paper investigates how changing climate will affect Thailand{\textquoteright}s daily, seasonal, and long-term electricity demand. Regression models are applied to capture daily load patterns across each month in the year. Temperature projections from the UK Hadley Centre climate model are then used to assess hourly sensitivity to changes in mean temperatures and diurnal temperature range. These are combined with four representative socioeconomic scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to project absolute changes in Thailand{\textquoteright}s electricity demand. The specific climate and socioeconomic scenarios considered here indicate that mean annual temperatures in Thailand will rise by 1.74 to 3.43°C by 2080, implying increases in Thai peak electricity demand of 1.5%–3.1% in the 2020s, 3.7%–8.3% in the 2050s, and 6.6%–15.3% in the 2080s.",

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Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change on Future Electricity Demand in Thailand

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