Are recent wet Northwestern European summers a response to sea ice retreat?

Simon F.B. Tett, Kirsten Deans, Edoardo Mazza, James Mollard

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

Abstract / Description of output

Since 2007, UK and northwestern (NW) European summers have been anomalously wet, with summer 2007 being notable for significant flooding in southern England. The circulation anomaly associated with this event is consistent with a southward shift in the summer storm track. HadAM3P (Atmosphere General Circulation Model) did not, in any of 36 simulations, produce a precipitation anomaly for 2007-2011 or 2008-2012 similar to that observed. The simulated 5-year average from 2003-2007 had average NW Europe percentage precipitation comparable to the observed values for 2007-2011. In this case the mechanism appears different with a westward shift of low pressure over Europe rather than a southwards shift as observed. Thus we conclude that the recent precipitation anomalies over North Western Europe likely represent an unusual event not well represented in HadAM3P.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)S32-S35
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume94
Issue number9
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sept 2013

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