Assessing individual influence on group decisions in geological carbon capture and storage problems

Debbie Polson, Andrew Curtis

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract / Description of output

The inherent uncertainty in information about the Earth's subsurface requires experts to interpret and reach judgements about geological data based on their individual experience and expertise. This is particularly true for the geological storage of CO2 in subsurface saline aquifers where the fate of the injected CO2 needs to be predicted far into the future. In this chapter, linear modelling is used in a structured elicitation exercise to estimate the relative influence of individual experts within a group and to assess whether a group consensus reflects a genuine shared opinion or is biased towards or away from any dominant member or subgroup. The method is applied to a real expert evaluation of the carbon storage potential of a siliciclastic formation. This reveals herding behaviour amongst the experts, and levels of inter-expert influence that are undue given individual experts' levels of expertise, though neither phenomena was apparent during the meeting.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationCollaborative Knowledge in Scientific Research Networks
EditorsP Diviacco, P Fox, C Pshenichny, A Leadbetter
Place of PublicationHershey
PublisherIGI Global
ISBN (Electronic)9781466665682
ISBN (Print)146666567X
Publication statusPublished - 14 Nov 2014


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