Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme flows across Great Britain

L. Collet, L. Beevers, C. Prudhomme

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Climate projections are predicted to result in the increase of UK properties at risk from flooding. It thus becomes urgent to assess the possible impact of these changes on extreme high flows in particular, and evaluate the uncertainties related to these projections. This paper aims to assess the changes in extreme runoff for the 100-year return level across Great Britain. It is based on the Future Flow database and analyses daily runoff over 1961-2098. The Generalized ExtremeValue (GEV) distribution function is automatically fitted over the baseline and the 2080s for 281 gauging stations. The analysis evaluates the uncertainty related to the GEV, and to the climate model parameterization. Then it assesses return levels with combined uncertainties. Results show that the west coast of the whole country presents the lowest climate model and probabilistic distribution uncertainties. The climate model parameterization provides greater uncertainty than the GEV distribution function.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSustainable Hydraulics in the Era of Global Change - Proceedings of the 4th European Congress of the International Association of Hydroenvironment engineering and Research, IAHR 2016
EditorsSebastien Erpicum, Benjamin Dewals, Pierre Archambeau, Michel Pirotton
Publisher[publishername] CRC Press/Balkema
Pages877-883
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9781315375069
ISBN (Print)9781138029774
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 Oct 2016
Event4th European Congress of the International Association of Hydroenvironment engineering and Research, IAHR 2016 - Liege, Belgium
Duration: 27 Jul 201629 Jul 2016

Publication series

NameSustainable Hydraulics in the Era of Global Change - Proceedings of the 4th European Congress of the International Association of Hydroenvironment engineering and Research, IAHR 2016

Conference

Conference4th European Congress of the International Association of Hydroenvironment engineering and Research, IAHR 2016
Country/TerritoryBelgium
CityLiege
Period27/07/1629/07/16

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