Asymmetry of individual and aggregate inflation expectations: A survey

Nikola Mirkov, Andreas Steinhauer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We conducted a simple, anonymous survey at the beginning of 2014, asking around 200 economists worldwide to reveal their expectations about US inflation. The outcome of the survey shows that a significant share of respondents revealed asymmetric inflation expectations and that the deviation from symmetry is sizeable. The aggregate distribution we obtain is moderately skewed to the right. Interestingly though, it is disagreement among respondents and not the asymmetry of their subjective distributions that drives the aggregate skewness. In fact, ignoring individual asymmetry changes little in terms of mean and variance of the aggregate distribution.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)446-467
JournalManchester School
Volume86
Issue number4
Early online date3 May 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Jul 2018

Keywords

  • inflation expectations
  • subjective distributions
  • asymmetry

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