Biomarkers to improve functional outcome prediction after ischemic stroke: Results from the SICFAIL, STRAWINSKI, and PREDICT studies

Felipe A Montellano*, Viktoria Rücker, Kathrin Ungethüm, Anna Penalba, Benjamin Hotter, Marina Giralt, Silke Wiedmann, Daniel Mackenrodt, Caroline Morbach, Stefan Frantz, Stefan Störk, William N Whiteley, Christoph Kleinschnitz, Andreas Meisel, Joan Montaner, Karl Georg Haeusler, Peter U Heuschmann

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract / Description of output

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) outcome prognostication remains challenging despite available prognostic models. We investigated whether a biomarker panel improves the predictive performance of established prognostic scores.

METHODS: We investigated the improvement in discrimination, calibration, and overall performance by adding five biomarkers (procalcitonin, copeptin, cortisol, mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)) to the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) and age/NIHSS scores using data from two prospective cohort studies (SICFAIL, PREDICT) and one clinical trial (STRAWINSKI). Poor outcome was defined as mRS > 2 at 12 (SICFAIL, derivation dataset) or 3 months (PREDICT/STRAWINSKI, pooled external validation dataset).

RESULTS: Among 412 SICFAIL participants (median age 70 years, quartiles 59-78; 63% male; median NIHSS score 3, quartiles 1-5), 29% had a poor outcome. Area under the curve of the ASTRAL and age/NIHSS were 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.81) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.82), respectively. Copeptin (0.79, 95% CI 0.74-0.84), NT-proBNP (0.80, 95% CI 0.76-0.84), and MR-proANP (0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.84) significantly improved ASTRAL score's discrimination, calibration, and overall performance. Copeptin improved age/NIHSS model's discrimination, copeptin, MR-proANP, and NT-proBNP improved its calibration and overall performance. In the validation dataset (450 patients, median age 73 years, quartiles 66-81; 54% men; median NIHSS score 8, quartiles 3-14), copeptin was independently associated with various definitions of poor outcome and also mortality. Copeptin did not increase model's discrimination but it did improve calibration and overall model performance.

DISCUSSION: Copeptin, NT-proBNP, and MR-proANP improved modest but consistently the predictive performance of established prognostic scores in patients with mild AIS. Copeptin was most consistently associated with poor outcome in patients with moderate to severe AIS, although its added prognostic value was less obvious.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)23969873241250272
JournalEuropean Stroke Journal
Early online date6 May 2024
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 6 May 2024


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