Changes in the global hospitalisation burden of respiratory syncytial virus in young children during the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis

Harish Nair, Bingbing Cong, Uğurcan Koç MPharm, Teresa Bandeira, Quique Bassat, Louis Bont, Giorgi Chakhunashvili, Cheryl Cohen, Christine Desnoyers, Laura Hammitt, Terho Heikkinen, Q Sue Huang, Joško Markić, Ainara Mira-Iglesias, Jocelyn Moyes, James Nokes, Dominique Ploin, Euri Seo, Rosalyn Singleton, Nicole WolterChee Fu Yung, Heather Zar, Daniel Feikin, Erin Sparrow, You Li

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract / Description of output

Background
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was reported to have impacted RSV epidemiology and could have important implications for RSV prevention and control strategies. We aimed to understand the RSV-associated acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) hospitalisation burden in children younger than five years during the COVID-19 pandemic period and the possible changes in RSV epidemiology from a global perspective.

Methods
We conducted a systematic literature search for studies published between January 1, 2020 and June 30, 2022, from MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), Global Health (Ovid), Web of Science, WHO COVID-19 database, CINAHL, LILACS, OpenGrey, CNKI, WanFang and ChongqingVIP. We included unpublished RSV epidemiology data shared by international collaborators. Eligible studies reported data for RSV-associated ALRI hospital admission rates or at least one of the following severity measures: the proportion of RSV cases that needed supplemental oxygen, mechanical ventilation or intensive care unit admission, and in-hospital case fatality ratio. A generalised linear mixed-effects model was used for data synthesis to understand the changes in the incidence, age distribution and severity of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations in children under five years during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to the year 2019.

Findings
We included 61 studies, 14 studies from published literature and 47 unpublished datasets. Most studies (51/61) were from the high-income region, followed by the upper-middle-income region (9/61); only one study was from the lower-middle-income region, and no studies were from the low-income region. Compared to 2019, all income regions saw substantial decreases in RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation rate across all age groups in 2020; the number of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations in children aged 0–<60 months decreased by approximately 80% (325,000 to 66,000), 14% (581,000 to 501,000) and 42% (1,378,000 to 795,000) for high-income, upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income countries, respectively. RSV hospitalisation rate started to rise in 2021, and by March 2022, the annualised rate returned to a level comparable to 2019 (6·0/1000, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·4–6·8 by March 2022 vs 5·0/1000, 3·6–6·8 in 2019) in high-income countries while remaining lower in middle-income countries. Across all time periods and income regions, RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation rates peaked in infants aged 0–<3 months and declined with increasing age. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, there was a significantly increased proportion of RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisations in those aged 12–<24 months in high-income and upper-middle-income regions (ORs ranged from 1·30 [1·07–1·59] to 2·05 [1·66–2·54]). No consistent changes in disease severity were observed.

Interpretation
Our study documented a significant reduction in RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation burden in children under five years during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. A rebound to pre-pandemic levels in RSV-associated ALRI hospitalisation rate was observed in the high-income region by March 2022 but not in the middle-income region, suggesting a more persistent negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health-care systems and health-care access in middle-income regions. RSV surveillance needs to be established (or re-established) to monitor the changes in RSV epidemiology, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Funding EU Innovative Medicines Initiative Preparing for RSV Immunisation and Surveillance in Europe (PROMISE); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; World Health Organization.

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages14
JournalThe Lancet Infectious Diseases
Early online date20 Dec 2023
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 20 Dec 2023

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