Changes in the relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon under global warming

Zixuan Jia; Massimo A. Bollasina; Chaofan Li; Ruth Doherty; Oliver Wild

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abca63

Changes in the relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon under global warming

Zixuan Jia, Massimo A. Bollasina, Chaofan Li, Ruth Doherty, Oliver Wild

School of Geosciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract / Description of output

Changes in the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) at various global warming levels during the 21st century are examined using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) RCP8.5 experiments. The externally-forced component of this relationship (i.e., forced by greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols emissions) strengthens from present-day to +1.5°C, and then weakens until +3°C. These changes are characterized by variations in strength and location of the core of El Niño-related warming and associated deep convection anomalies over the equatorial Pacific leading to circulation anomalies across the Asian-Pacific region. Under global warming, the ENSO-EAWM relationship is strongly related to the background mean state of both the EAWM and ENSO, through changes in the EAWM strength and the shift of the ENSO pattern. Anthropogenic aerosols play a key role in influencing the ENSO-EAWM relationship under moderate warming (up to 1.5°C).

Original language	English
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Early online date	13 Nov 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abca63
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 13 Nov 2020

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10.1088/1748-9326/abca63Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC-BY)

537. BollasinaFinal published version, 4.44 MBLicence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC-BY)

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abca63Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC-BY)

Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)
Hegerl, G. & Bollasina, M.
NERC
1/12/15 → 30/11/19
Project: Research

Cite this

@article{3c4130ee1e3542d3967cf772d5754085,

title = "Changes in the relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon under global warming",

abstract = "Changes in the relationship between El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) at various global warming levels during the 21st century are examined using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) RCP8.5 experiments. The externally-forced component of this relationship (i.e., forced by greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols emissions) strengthens from present-day to +1.5°C, and then weakens until +3°C. These changes are characterized by variations in strength and location of the core of El Ni{\~n}o-related warming and associated deep convection anomalies over the equatorial Pacific leading to circulation anomalies across the Asian-Pacific region. Under global warming, the ENSO-EAWM relationship is strongly related to the background mean state of both the EAWM and ENSO, through changes in the EAWM strength and the shift of the ENSO pattern. Anthropogenic aerosols play a key role in influencing the ENSO-EAWM relationship under moderate warming (up to 1.5°C).",

author = "Zixuan Jia and Bollasina, {Massimo A.} and Chaofan Li and Ruth Doherty and Oliver Wild",

year = "2020",

month = nov,

day = "13",

doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/abca63",

language = "English",

journal = "Environmental Research Letters",

issn = "1748-9326",

publisher = "IOP Publishing",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Changes in the relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon under global warming

AU - Jia, Zixuan

AU - Bollasina, Massimo A.

AU - Li, Chaofan

AU - Doherty, Ruth

AU - Wild, Oliver

PY - 2020/11/13

Y1 - 2020/11/13

N2 - Changes in the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) at various global warming levels during the 21st century are examined using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) RCP8.5 experiments. The externally-forced component of this relationship (i.e., forced by greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols emissions) strengthens from present-day to +1.5°C, and then weakens until +3°C. These changes are characterized by variations in strength and location of the core of El Niño-related warming and associated deep convection anomalies over the equatorial Pacific leading to circulation anomalies across the Asian-Pacific region. Under global warming, the ENSO-EAWM relationship is strongly related to the background mean state of both the EAWM and ENSO, through changes in the EAWM strength and the shift of the ENSO pattern. Anthropogenic aerosols play a key role in influencing the ENSO-EAWM relationship under moderate warming (up to 1.5°C).

AB - Changes in the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) at various global warming levels during the 21st century are examined using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) RCP8.5 experiments. The externally-forced component of this relationship (i.e., forced by greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols emissions) strengthens from present-day to +1.5°C, and then weakens until +3°C. These changes are characterized by variations in strength and location of the core of El Niño-related warming and associated deep convection anomalies over the equatorial Pacific leading to circulation anomalies across the Asian-Pacific region. Under global warming, the ENSO-EAWM relationship is strongly related to the background mean state of both the EAWM and ENSO, through changes in the EAWM strength and the shift of the ENSO pattern. Anthropogenic aerosols play a key role in influencing the ENSO-EAWM relationship under moderate warming (up to 1.5°C).

U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/abca63

DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/abca63

M3 - Article

SN - 1748-9326

JO - Environmental Research Letters

JF - Environmental Research Letters

ER -

Changes in the relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon under global warming

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Projects

Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)

Cite this