Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric

Gord  Stephen; Simon H.  Tindemans; John  Fazio; Chris J. Dent; Armando Figueroa  Acevedo; Bagen  Bagen; Alex  Crawford; Andreas  Klaube; Douglas  Logan; Daniel  Burke

Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric

Gord Stephen, Simon H. Tindemans, John Fazio, Chris J. Dent, Armando Figueroa Acevedo, Bagen Bagen, Alex Crawford, Andreas Klaube, Douglas Logan, Daniel Burke

School of Mathematics

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

Abstract

The loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) risk metric
has been used in probabilistic power system resource adequacy
assessment for over 70 years, and today is one of the most
recognizable and widely-used measures of system shortfall risk.
However, this wide adoption has been accompanied by ambigu-
ities and inconsistencies in its definition and application. This
paper provides a unifying reference for defining the metric as it
relates to modern analyses, while clarifying a number of common
points of confusion in its application. In particular, the paper
clarifies that LOLE is not a measure of expected total shortfall
duration, a 2.4 hours per year LOLE target implies a less reliable
system than a 1 day in 10 years (0.1 days per year) LOLE target,
and exact conversions between hourly and daily LOLE targets
are not generally possible. Illustrative examples are provided to
help explain each of these points

Original language	English
Number of pages	4
Publication status	Accepted/In press - 24 Mar 2022
Event	17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022 - Manchester, United Kingdom Duration: 12 Jun 2022 → 15 Jun 2022 https://www.pmaps2022.org/

Conference

Conference	17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022
Country/Territory	United Kingdom
City	Manchester
Period	12/06/22 → 15/06/22
Internet address	https://www.pmaps2022.org/

Cite this

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title = "Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric",

abstract = "The loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) risk metrichas been used in probabilistic power system resource adequacyassessment for over 70 years, and today is one of the mostrecognizable and widely-used measures of system shortfall risk.However, this wide adoption has been accompanied by ambigu-ities and inconsistencies in its definition and application. Thispaper provides a unifying reference for defining the metric as itrelates to modern analyses, while clarifying a number of commonpoints of confusion in its application. In particular, the paperclarifies that LOLE is not a measure of expected total shortfallduration, a 2.4 hours per year LOLE target implies a less reliablesystem than a 1 day in 10 years (0.1 days per year) LOLE target,and exact conversions between hourly and daily LOLE targetsare not generally possible. Illustrative examples are provided tohelp explain each of these points",

author = "Gord Stephen and Tindemans, {Simon H.} and John Fazio and Dent, {Chris J.} and Acevedo, {Armando Figueroa} and Bagen Bagen and Alex Crawford and Andreas Klaube and Douglas Logan and Daniel Burke",

year = "2022",

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language = "English",

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TY - CONF

T1 - Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric

AU - Stephen, Gord

AU - Tindemans, Simon H.

AU - Fazio, John

AU - Dent, Chris J.

AU - Acevedo, Armando Figueroa

AU - Bagen, Bagen

AU - Crawford, Alex

AU - Klaube, Andreas

AU - Logan, Douglas

AU - Burke, Daniel

PY - 2022/3/24

Y1 - 2022/3/24

N2 - The loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) risk metrichas been used in probabilistic power system resource adequacyassessment for over 70 years, and today is one of the mostrecognizable and widely-used measures of system shortfall risk.However, this wide adoption has been accompanied by ambigu-ities and inconsistencies in its definition and application. Thispaper provides a unifying reference for defining the metric as itrelates to modern analyses, while clarifying a number of commonpoints of confusion in its application. In particular, the paperclarifies that LOLE is not a measure of expected total shortfallduration, a 2.4 hours per year LOLE target implies a less reliablesystem than a 1 day in 10 years (0.1 days per year) LOLE target,and exact conversions between hourly and daily LOLE targetsare not generally possible. Illustrative examples are provided tohelp explain each of these points

AB - The loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) risk metrichas been used in probabilistic power system resource adequacyassessment for over 70 years, and today is one of the mostrecognizable and widely-used measures of system shortfall risk.However, this wide adoption has been accompanied by ambigu-ities and inconsistencies in its definition and application. Thispaper provides a unifying reference for defining the metric as itrelates to modern analyses, while clarifying a number of commonpoints of confusion in its application. In particular, the paperclarifies that LOLE is not a measure of expected total shortfallduration, a 2.4 hours per year LOLE target implies a less reliablesystem than a 1 day in 10 years (0.1 days per year) LOLE target,and exact conversions between hourly and daily LOLE targetsare not generally possible. Illustrative examples are provided tohelp explain each of these points

M3 - Paper

T2 - 17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022

Y2 - 12 June 2022 through 15 June 2022

ER -

Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric

Abstract

Conference

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