Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric

Gord Stephen, Simon H. Tindemans, John Fazio, Chris J. Dent, Armando Figueroa Acevedo, Bagen Bagen, Alex Crawford, Andreas Klaube, Douglas Logan, Daniel Burke

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review

Abstract

The loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) risk metric
has been used in probabilistic power system resource adequacy
assessment for over 70 years, and today is one of the most
recognizable and widely-used measures of system shortfall risk.
However, this wide adoption has been accompanied by ambigu-
ities and inconsistencies in its definition and application. This
paper provides a unifying reference for defining the metric as it
relates to modern analyses, while clarifying a number of common
points of confusion in its application. In particular, the paper
clarifies that LOLE is not a measure of expected total shortfall
duration, a 2.4 hours per year LOLE target implies a less reliable
system than a 1 day in 10 years (0.1 days per year) LOLE target,
and exact conversions between hourly and daily LOLE targets
are not generally possible. Illustrative examples are provided to
help explain each of these points
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages4
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 24 Mar 2022
Event17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022 - Manchester, United Kingdom
Duration: 12 Jun 202215 Jun 2022
https://www.pmaps2022.org/

Conference

Conference17th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, PMAPS 2022
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
CityManchester
Period12/06/2215/06/22
Internet address

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