Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

J. M. Gregory; D. Bi; M. A. Collier; M. R. Dix; A. C. Hirst; A. Hu; M. Huber; R. Knutti; S. J. Marsland; M. Meinshausen; H. A. Rashid; L. D. Rotstayn; A. Schurer; J. A. Church

doi:10.1002/grl.50339

Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

J. M. Gregory^*, D. Bi, M. A. Collier, M. R. Dix, A. C. Hirst, A. Hu, M. Huber, R. Knutti, S. J. Marsland, M. Meinshausen, H. A. Rashid, L. D. Rotstayn, A. Schurer, J. A. Church

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Geosciences

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Abstract

Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last approximate to 150years is consequently underestimated by 530mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1600-1604
Number of pages	5
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	40
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50339
Publication status	Published - 28 Apr 2013

Keywords

volcano
ocean heat content
climate change
sea level rise
CARBON-CYCLE MODELS
ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN
SIMPLER MODEL

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Published in Geophysical Research Letters by the American Geophysical Union (2013)
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Gregory, J. M., Bi, D., Collier, M. A., Dix, M. R., Hirst, A. C., Hu, A., Huber, M., Knutti, R., Marsland, S. J., Meinshausen, M., Rashid, H. A., Rotstayn, L. D., Schurer, A., & Church, J. A. (2013). Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(8), 1600-1604. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50339

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title = "Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion",

abstract = "Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last approximate to 150years is consequently underestimated by 530mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias.",

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author = "Gregory, {J. M.} and D. Bi and Collier, {M. A.} and Dix, {M. R.} and Hirst, {A. C.} and A. Hu and M. Huber and R. Knutti and Marsland, {S. J.} and M. Meinshausen and Rashid, {H. A.} and Rotstayn, {L. D.} and A. Schurer and Church, {J. A.}",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

AU - Gregory, J. M.

AU - Bi, D.

AU - Collier, M. A.

AU - Dix, M. R.

AU - Hirst, A. C.

AU - Hu, A.

AU - Huber, M.

AU - Knutti, R.

AU - Marsland, S. J.

AU - Meinshausen, M.

AU - Rashid, H. A.

AU - Rotstayn, L. D.

AU - Schurer, A.

AU - Church, J. A.

PY - 2013/4/28

Y1 - 2013/4/28

N2 - Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last approximate to 150years is consequently underestimated by 530mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias.

AB - Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last approximate to 150years is consequently underestimated by 530mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias.

KW - volcano

KW - ocean heat content

KW - climate change

KW - sea level rise

KW - CARBON-CYCLE MODELS

KW - ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN

KW - SIMPLER MODEL

U2 - 10.1002/grl.50339

DO - 10.1002/grl.50339

M3 - Article

VL - 40

SP - 1600

EP - 1604

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 8

ER -

Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

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Keywords

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LastMill: Causes of change in European mean and extreme climate over the past 500 years

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