Abstract
The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by
90%–100% of publishing climate scientists according to six
independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are
consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res.
Lett. 8
024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014
took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of
authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97%
consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001)
comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of
non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of
those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not
unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in
climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus
by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of
global warming (‘no position’) represent non-endorsement, an
approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on
well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the
available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in
published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys
of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 48002 |
| Journal | Environmental Research Letters |
| Volume | 11 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Apr 2016 |