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Abstract / Description of output
Climate projections are essential for decision-making but contain non-negligible uncertainty. To reduce projection uncertainty over Asia, where half the world's population resides, we develop emergent constraint relationships between simulated temperature (1970-2014) and precipitation (2015-2100) growth rates using 27 CMIP6 models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Here we show that, with uncertainty successfully narrowed by 12.1-31.0%, constrained future precipitation growth rates are 0.39 ± 0.18 mm year -1 (29.36 mm °C -1, SSP126), 0.70 ± 0.22 mm year -1 (20.03 mm °C -1, SSP245), 1.10 ± 0.33 mm year -1 (17.96 mm °C -1, SSP370) and 1.42 ± 0.35 mm year -1 (17.28 mm °C -1, SSP585), indicating overestimates of 6.0-14.0% by the raw CMIP6 models. Accordingly, future temperature and total evaporation growth rates are also overestimated by 3.4-11.6% and -2.1-13.0%, respectively. The slower warming implies a lower snow cover loss rate by 10.5-40.2%. Overall, we find the projected increase in future water availability is overestimated by CMIP6 over Asia.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 4124 |
Journal | Nature Communications |
Volume | 13 |
Issue number | 1 |
Early online date | 15 Jul 2022 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Dec 2022 |
Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)
- HYDROLOGY
- projection and prediction
- Models, Theoretical
- Water
- Climate
- Climate Change
- Asia
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