COVID-19 and pandemic preparedness: Foresight narratives and public sector responses

The management of the COVID-19 pandemic is a novel global challenge being addressed in real time. While some countries and regions of the world have had more recent experience managing similar viruses (such as SARS), all have had to deal with the new corona virus and the novel challenges that it presents. Public policy responses are rapidly changing, sometimes daily. This article focuses on how foresight narratives have impacted policymaking as related to the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, it provides an overview of the use of foresight within the public sector prior to the pandemic. It also investigates the key narratives in circulation during the implementation of governments’ strategic objectives and the realization of visions of a ‘pandemic-free’ society. The approach used here is that of narrative foresight which predominantly focuses on the stories that individuals, organizations, states and civilizations tell themselves about the future. In addition to the overarching narratives, the
article also investigates more specifically the most commonly used metaphors prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of the article is to ascertain which lessons we can learn in terms of successes and failures of narrative ‘foresight in action’, so as to be able to utilise this knowledge for future global problems. Finally, the article argues that many current metaphors and narratives are linked to ‘futures fallacies’ – detrimental thinking patterns about the future. It then concludes by briefly investigating alternative narratives and metaphors which are more likely to facilitate the desired future of adequate pandemic
preparedness.