Dark Energy Survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

(DES Collaboration); C. Doux; E. Baxter; P. Lemos; C. Chang; A. Alarcon; A. Amon; A. Campos; A. Choi; M. Gatti; D. Gruen; M. Jarvis; N. MacCrann; Y. Park; J. Prat; M. M. Rau; M. Raveri; S. Samuroff; J. DeRose; W. G. Hartley; B. Hoyle; M. A. Troxel; J. Zuntz; T. M. C. Abbott; M. Aguena; S. Allam; J. Annis; S. Avila; D. Bacon; E. Bertin; S. Bhargava; D. Brooks; D. L. Burke; M. Carrasco Kind; J. Carretero; R. Cawthon; M. Costanzi; L. N. da Costa; M. E. S. Pereira; S. Desai; H. T. Diehl; J. P. Dietrich; P. Doel; S. Everett; I. Ferrero; P. Fosalba; J. Frieman; J. García-Bellido; D. W. Gerdes; T. Giannantonio; R. A. Gruendl; J. Gschwend; G. Gutierrez; S. R. Hinton; D. L. Hollowood; K. Honscheid; E. M. Huff; D. Huterer; B. Jain; D. J. James; E. Krause; K. Kuehn; N. Kuropatkin; O. Lahav; C. Lidman; M. Lima; M. A. G. Maia; F. Menanteau; R. Miquel; R. Morgan; J. Muir; R. L. C. Ogando; A. Palmese; F. Paz-Chinchón; A. A. Plazas; E. Sanchez; V. Scarpine; M. Schubnell; S. Serrano; I. Sevilla-Noarbe; M. Smith; E. Suchyta; M. E. C. Swanson; G. Tarle; C. To; D. L. Tucker; T. N. Varga; J. Weller; R. D. Wilkinson

doi:10.1093/mnras/stab526

Dark Energy Survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

(DES Collaboration), C. Doux^*, E. Baxter, P. Lemos, C. Chang, A. Alarcon, A. Amon, A. Campos, A. Choi, M. Gatti, D. Gruen, M. Jarvis, N. MacCrann, Y. Park, J. Prat, M. M. Rau, M. Raveri, S. Samuroff, J. DeRose, W. G. HartleyB. Hoyle, M. A. Troxel, J. Zuntz, T. M. C. Abbott, M. Aguena, S. Allam, J. Annis, S. Avila, D. Bacon, E. Bertin, S. Bhargava, D. Brooks, D. L. Burke, M. Carrasco Kind, J. Carretero, R. Cawthon, M. Costanzi, L. N. da Costa, M. E. S. Pereira, S. Desai, H. T. Diehl, J. P. Dietrich, P. Doel, S. Everett, I. Ferrero, P. Fosalba, J. Frieman, J. García-Bellido, D. W. Gerdes, T. Giannantonio, R. A. Gruendl, J. Gschwend, G. Gutierrez, S. R. Hinton, D. L. Hollowood, K. Honscheid, E. M. Huff, D. Huterer, B. Jain, D. J. James, E. Krause, K. Kuehn, N. Kuropatkin, O. Lahav, C. Lidman, M. Lima, M. A. G. Maia, F. Menanteau, R. Miquel, R. Morgan, J. Muir, R. L. C. Ogando, A. Palmese, F. Paz-Chinchón, A. A. Plazas, E. Sanchez, V. Scarpine, M. Schubnell, S. Serrano, I. Sevilla-Noarbe, M. Smith, E. Suchyta, M. E. C. Swanson, G. Tarle, C. To, D. L. Tucker, T. N. Varga, J. Weller, R. D. Wilkinson

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Physics and Astronomy

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. We present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2688-2705
Number of pages	17
Journal	Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume	503
Issue number	2
Early online date	24 Feb 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stab526
Publication status	Published - 1 May 2021

Keywords

astro-ph.CO
astro-ph.IM

Access to Document

10.1093/mnras/stab526

https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.03410

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(DES Collaboration), Doux, C., Baxter, E., Lemos, P., Chang, C., Alarcon, A., Amon, A., Campos, A., Choi, A., Gatti, M., Gruen, D., Jarvis, M., MacCrann, N., Park, Y., Prat, J., Rau, M. M., Raveri, M., Samuroff, S., DeRose, J., ... Wilkinson, R. D. (2021). Dark Energy Survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society , 503(2), 2688-2705. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stab526

@article{421b3647482343bb9fd999fbbf80211b,

title = "Dark Energy Survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions",

abstract = "Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. We present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.",

keywords = "astro-ph.CO, astro-ph.IM",

author = "{(DES Collaboration)} and C. Doux and E. Baxter and P. Lemos and C. Chang and A. Alarcon and A. Amon and A. Campos and A. Choi and M. Gatti and D. Gruen and M. Jarvis and N. MacCrann and Y. Park and J. Prat and Rau, {M. M.} and M. Raveri and S. Samuroff and J. DeRose and Hartley, {W. G.} and B. Hoyle and Troxel, {M. A.} and J. Zuntz and Abbott, {T. M. C.} and M. Aguena and S. Allam and J. Annis and S. Avila and D. Bacon and E. Bertin and S. Bhargava and D. Brooks and Burke, {D. L.} and Kind, {M. Carrasco} and J. Carretero and R. Cawthon and M. Costanzi and Costa, {L. N. da} and Pereira, {M. E. S.} and S. Desai and Diehl, {H. T.} and Dietrich, {J. P.} and P. Doel and S. Everett and I. Ferrero and P. Fosalba and J. Frieman and J. Garc{\'i}a-Bellido and Gerdes, {D. W.} and T. Giannantonio and Gruendl, {R. A.} and J. Gschwend and G. Gutierrez and Hinton, {S. R.} and Hollowood, {D. L.} and K. Honscheid and Huff, {E. M.} and D. Huterer and B. Jain and James, {D. J.} and E. Krause and K. Kuehn and N. Kuropatkin and O. Lahav and C. Lidman and M. Lima and Maia, {M. A. G.} and F. Menanteau and R. Miquel and R. Morgan and J. Muir and Ogando, {R. L. C.} and A. Palmese and F. Paz-Chinch{\'o}n and Plazas, {A. A.} and E. Sanchez and V. Scarpine and M. Schubnell and S. Serrano and I. Sevilla-Noarbe and M. Smith and E. Suchyta and Swanson, {M. E. C.} and G. Tarle and C. To and Tucker, {D. L.} and Varga, {T. N.} and J. Weller and Wilkinson, {R. D.}",

note = "v2: Minor modification in calibration methodology; conclusions unchanged. v3: Matches version accepted in MNRAS; generalises calibration of p-values, while leaving qualitative conclusions unchanged. Comments are welcome",

year = "2021",

month = may,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1093/mnras/stab526",

language = "English",

volume = "503",

pages = "2688--2705",

journal = "Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society ",

issn = "0035-8711",

publisher = "Oxford University Press",

number = "2",

}

(DES Collaboration), Doux, C, Baxter, E, Lemos, P, Chang, C, Alarcon, A, Amon, A, Campos, A, Choi, A, Gatti, M, Gruen, D, Jarvis, M, MacCrann, N, Park, Y, Prat, J, Rau, MM, Raveri, M, Samuroff, S, DeRose, J, Hartley, WG, Hoyle, B, Troxel, MA, Zuntz, J, Abbott, TMC, Aguena, M, Allam, S, Annis, J, Avila, S, Bacon, D, Bertin, E, Bhargava, S, Brooks, D, Burke, DL, Kind, MC, Carretero, J, Cawthon, R, Costanzi, M, Costa, LND, Pereira, MES, Desai, S, Diehl, HT, Dietrich, JP, Doel, P, Everett, S, Ferrero, I, Fosalba, P, Frieman, J, García-Bellido, J, Gerdes, DW, Giannantonio, T, Gruendl, RA, Gschwend, J, Gutierrez, G, Hinton, SR, Hollowood, DL, Honscheid, K, Huff, EM, Huterer, D, Jain, B, James, DJ, Krause, E, Kuehn, K, Kuropatkin, N, Lahav, O, Lidman, C, Lima, M, Maia, MAG, Menanteau, F, Miquel, R, Morgan, R, Muir, J, Ogando, RLC, Palmese, A, Paz-Chinchón, F, Plazas, AA, Sanchez, E, Scarpine, V, Schubnell, M, Serrano, S, Sevilla-Noarbe, I, Smith, M, Suchyta, E, Swanson, MEC, Tarle, G, To, C, Tucker, DL, Varga, TN, Weller, J & Wilkinson, RD 2021, 'Dark Energy Survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions', Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society , vol. 503, no. 2, pp. 2688-2705. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stab526

TY - JOUR

T1 - Dark Energy Survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

AU - (DES Collaboration)

AU - Doux, C.

AU - Baxter, E.

AU - Lemos, P.

AU - Chang, C.

AU - Alarcon, A.

AU - Amon, A.

AU - Campos, A.

AU - Choi, A.

AU - Gatti, M.

AU - Gruen, D.

AU - Jarvis, M.

AU - MacCrann, N.

AU - Park, Y.

AU - Prat, J.

AU - Rau, M. M.

AU - Raveri, M.

AU - Samuroff, S.

AU - DeRose, J.

AU - Hartley, W. G.

AU - Hoyle, B.

AU - Troxel, M. A.

AU - Zuntz, J.

AU - Abbott, T. M. C.

AU - Aguena, M.

AU - Allam, S.

AU - Annis, J.

AU - Avila, S.

AU - Bacon, D.

AU - Bertin, E.

AU - Bhargava, S.

AU - Brooks, D.

AU - Burke, D. L.

AU - Kind, M. Carrasco

AU - Carretero, J.

AU - Cawthon, R.

AU - Costanzi, M.

AU - Costa, L. N. da

AU - Pereira, M. E. S.

AU - Desai, S.

AU - Diehl, H. T.

AU - Dietrich, J. P.

AU - Doel, P.

AU - Everett, S.

AU - Ferrero, I.

AU - Fosalba, P.

AU - Frieman, J.

AU - García-Bellido, J.

AU - Gerdes, D. W.

AU - Giannantonio, T.

AU - Gruendl, R. A.

AU - Gschwend, J.

AU - Gutierrez, G.

AU - Hinton, S. R.

AU - Hollowood, D. L.

AU - Honscheid, K.

AU - Huff, E. M.

AU - Huterer, D.

AU - Jain, B.

AU - James, D. J.

AU - Krause, E.

AU - Kuehn, K.

AU - Kuropatkin, N.

AU - Lahav, O.

AU - Lidman, C.

AU - Lima, M.

AU - Maia, M. A. G.

AU - Menanteau, F.

AU - Miquel, R.

AU - Morgan, R.

AU - Muir, J.

AU - Ogando, R. L. C.

AU - Palmese, A.

AU - Paz-Chinchón, F.

AU - Plazas, A. A.

AU - Sanchez, E.

AU - Scarpine, V.

AU - Schubnell, M.

AU - Serrano, S.

AU - Sevilla-Noarbe, I.

AU - Smith, M.

AU - Suchyta, E.

AU - Swanson, M. E. C.

AU - Tarle, G.

AU - To, C.

AU - Tucker, D. L.

AU - Varga, T. N.

AU - Weller, J.

AU - Wilkinson, R. D.

N1 - v2: Minor modification in calibration methodology; conclusions unchanged. v3: Matches version accepted in MNRAS; generalises calibration of p-values, while leaving qualitative conclusions unchanged. Comments are welcome

PY - 2021/5/1

Y1 - 2021/5/1

N2 - Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. We present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

AB - Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. We present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

KW - astro-ph.CO

KW - astro-ph.IM

U2 - 10.1093/mnras/stab526

DO - 10.1093/mnras/stab526

M3 - Article

VL - 503

SP - 2688

EP - 2705

JO - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

JF - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

SN - 0035-8711

IS - 2

ER -

Dark Energy Survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

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