Data-driven design of targeted gene panels for estimating immunotherapy biomarkers

Tumour mutation burden and other exome-wide biomarkers are used to determine which patients will benefit from immunotherapy. However, the cost of whole exome sequencing limits the widespread use of such biomarkers. Here, we introduce a data-driven framework for the design of targeted gene panels for estimating a broad class of biomarkers including tumour mutation burden and tumour indel burden. Our first goal is to develop a generative model for the profile of mutation across the exome, which allows for gene- and variant type-dependent mutation rates. Based on this model, we then propose a procedure for constructing biomarker estimators. Our approach allows the practitioner to select a targeted gene panel of prespecified size and construct an estimator that only depends on the selected genes. Alternatively, our method may be applied to make predictions based on an existing gene panel, or to augment a gene panel to a given size. We demonstrate the excellent performance of our proposal using data from three non small-cell lung cancer studies, as well as data from six other cancer types.