Developing carbon budgets for UK agriculture, land-use, land-use change and forestry out to 2022

Dominic Moran, Michael MacLeod, Eileen Wall, Vera Eory, Alistair McVittie, Andrew Barnes, Bob Rees, Cairistiona F. E. Topp, Guillaume Pajot, Robin Matthews, Pete Smith, Andrew Moxey

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper derives a notional future carbon budget for UK agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry sectors (ALULUCF). The budget is based on a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) derived for a range of mitigation measures for specified adoption scenarios for the years 2012, 2017 and 2022. The results indicate that in 2022 around 6.36 MtCO(2)e could be abated at negative or zero cost. Furthermore, in the same year, over 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 MtCO(2)e) could be abated at a cost of less than the 2022 Shadow Price of Carbon (A 34 pound (tCO(2)e) (-aEuro parts per thousand 1)). The development of robust MACCs faces a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost-effectiveness appraisal in ALULUCF relative to other sectors. Nevertheless, the current analysis provides an initial route map of efficient measures for mitigation in UK agriculture.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)529-553
Number of pages25
JournalClimatic Change
Issue number3-4
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2011



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