DISTINGUISHING THE ROLES OF NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENICALLY FORCED DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY Implications for Prediction

US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability W, Amy Solomon, Lisa Goddard, Arun Kumar, James Carton, Clara Deser, Ichiro Fukumori, Arthur M. Greene, Gabriele Hegerl, Ben Kirtman, Yochanan Kushnir, Matthew Newman, Doug Smith, Dan Vimont, Tom Delworth, Gerald A. Meehl, Timothy Stockdale

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

DISTINGUISHING THE ROLES OF NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENICALLY FORCED DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR PREDICTION

Given that over the course of the next 10-30 years the magnitude of natural decalial variations may rival that of anthropogenically forced climate change on regional scales, it is envisioned that initialized decadal predictions will provide important information for climate-related management and adaptation decisions. Such predictions are presently one of the grand challenges for the climate community. This requires identifying those physical phenomena and their model equivalents that May provide additional predictability on decadal time scales, including an assessment of the physical processes through which anthropogenic forcing may interact with or project upon natural variability. Such a physical framework is necessary to provide a consistent assessment (and insight into potential improvement) of the decadal prediction experiments planned to be assessed as part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)141-+
Number of pages17
JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Volume92
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2011

Keywords

  • SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
  • EQUATORIAL PACIFIC-OCEAN
  • ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION
  • EL-NINO-LIKE
  • NORTH-ATLANTIC
  • ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
  • COUPLED MODEL
  • WIND STRESSES
  • PART I
  • ENSO

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