Effect of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Programmes on Overall Survival in a Mixed Cirrhotic UK Population: 
A Prospective, Longitudinal Cohort Study

Introduction: Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended by national and international guidelines. However, there are no trial data on whether surveillance improves clinical outcomes in a UK cirrhosis population of mixed aetiology. Our aim was to determine the impact of, and adherence to, surveillance on overall survival. Methods: We prospectively collected data on consecutive patients diagnosed with HCC between January 2009 and December 2015 at two large UK centres. We assessed outcomes depending on whether they had been entered into an HCC surveillance programme, and if they had adhered to that. Results: Out of 985 patients diagnosed with HCC in this study, 40.0% had been enrolled in a surveillance programme. Of these, 76.6% were adherent with surveillance and 24.4% were not. Adherence to surveillance was significantly associated with improved overall survival, even when accounting for lead-time bias using different approaches (HR for 270 days lead-time adjustment 0.64, 0.53 to 0.76, p < 0.001). Conclusions: When adjusted for lead-time bias, HCC surveillance is associated with improved overall survival; however, the beneficial effect of surveillance on survival was lower than reported in studies that did not account fully for lead-time bias.