Electricity system security of supply in Scotland

Scotland’s electricity system is undergoing a transformation with rapid increases in installed wind and solar electricity generating capacity. This is coupled with the phase out of nuclear and unabated gas power stations.

This will impact on Scotland’s electricity system security of supply, which has historically relied on large, centralised fossil fuel power plants. These can ramp power production to meet demand, in addition to grid network connection to the rest of Great Britain. Here ‘security of supply’ refers to the ability of the system to reliably and continuously provide a sufficient amount of electricity to meet the demands of consumers.

In this report, we explore issues around security of supply in Scotland’s electricity system in the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045.

We examine international examples of national and regional electricity systems transitioning to net zero and review the potential impact of electricity market reform. We use scenario modelling to quantify security of supply and import/export metrics for the expected technology pathway in Scotland.

The report also looks at the security of supply of a self-sufficient Scotland, with no interconnection to Europe or the rest of Great Britain, in addition to a low capacity and high demand scenario to further test Scotland’s future electricity system.