Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group

doi:10.1126/science.abg3055

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract / Description of output

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

Original language	English
Journal	Science (New York, N.Y.)
Volume	372
Issue number	6538
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055
Publication status	Published - 9 Apr 2021

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Basic Reproduction Number
COVID-19/epidemiology
COVID-19 Vaccines
Child
Child, Preschool
Communicable Disease Control
England/epidemiology
Europe/epidemiology
Female
Humans
Infant
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Theoretical
Mutation
SARS-CoV-2/genetics
Severity of Illness Index
Socioeconomic Factors
United States/epidemiology
Viral Load
Young Adult

Access to Document

10.1126/science.abg3055

science.abg3055Final published version, 14.2 MBLicence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC-BY)

Cite this

@article{8fbaac6328d64cb9bbb00a3fcc18bd76,

title = "Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England",

abstract = "A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.",

keywords = "Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Basic Reproduction Number, COVID-19/epidemiology, COVID-19 Vaccines, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control, England/epidemiology, Europe/epidemiology, Female, Humans, Infant, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Mutation, SARS-CoV-2/genetics, Severity of Illness Index, Socioeconomic Factors, United States/epidemiology, Viral Load, Young Adult",

author = "{CMMID COVID-19 Working Group} and Davies, {Nicholas G} and Sam Abbott and Barnard, {Rosanna C} and Jarvis, {Christopher I} and Kucharski, {Adam J} and Munday, {James D} and Pearson, {Carl A B} and Russell, {Timothy W} and Tully, {Damien C} and Washburne, {Alex D} and Tom Wenseleers and Amy Gimma and William Waites and Wong, {Kerry L M} and {van Zandvoort}, Kevin and Silverman, {Justin D} and Karla Diaz-Ordaz and Ruth Keogh and Eggo, {Rosalind M} and Sebastian Funk and Mark Jit and Atkins, {Katherine E} and Edmunds, {W John}",

note = "Copyright {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.",

year = "2021",

month = apr,

day = "9",

doi = "10.1126/science.abg3055",

language = "English",

volume = "372",

journal = "Science (New York, N.Y.)",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE",

number = "6538",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group

AU - Davies, Nicholas G

AU - Abbott, Sam

AU - Barnard, Rosanna C

AU - Jarvis, Christopher I

AU - Kucharski, Adam J

AU - Munday, James D

AU - Pearson, Carl A B

AU - Russell, Timothy W

AU - Tully, Damien C

AU - Washburne, Alex D

AU - Wenseleers, Tom

AU - Gimma, Amy

AU - Waites, William

AU - Wong, Kerry L M

AU - van Zandvoort, Kevin

AU - Silverman, Justin D

AU - Diaz-Ordaz, Karla

AU - Keogh, Ruth

AU - Eggo, Rosalind M

AU - Funk, Sebastian

AU - Jit, Mark

AU - Atkins, Katherine E

AU - Edmunds, W John

PY - 2021/4/9

Y1 - 2021/4/9

N2 - A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

AB - A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

KW - Adolescent

KW - Adult

KW - Aged

KW - Aged, 80 and over

KW - Basic Reproduction Number

KW - COVID-19/epidemiology

KW - COVID-19 Vaccines

KW - Child

KW - Child, Preschool

KW - Communicable Disease Control

KW - England/epidemiology

KW - Europe/epidemiology

KW - Female

KW - Humans

KW - Infant

KW - Male

KW - Middle Aged

KW - Models, Theoretical

KW - Mutation

KW - SARS-CoV-2/genetics

KW - Severity of Illness Index

KW - Socioeconomic Factors

KW - United States/epidemiology

KW - Viral Load

KW - Young Adult

U2 - 10.1126/science.abg3055

DO - 10.1126/science.abg3055

M3 - Article

C2 - 33658326

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 372

JO - Science (New York, N.Y.)

JF - Science (New York, N.Y.)

IS - 6538

ER -

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Abstract / Description of output

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this