TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating the number of injecting drug users in Scotland's HCV-diagnosed population using capture-recapture methods
AU - McDonald, S. A.
AU - Hutchinson, S. J.
AU - Schnier, C.
AU - McLeod, A.
AU - Goldberg, D. J.
PY - 2013/3/22
Y1 - 2013/3/22
N2 - SUMMARY In countries maintaining national hepatitis C virus (HCV) surveillance systems, a substantial proportion of individuals report no risk factors for infection. Our goal was to estimate the proportion of diagnosed HCV antibody-positive persons in Scotland (1991-2010) who probably acquired infection through injecting drug use (IDU), by combining data on IDU risk from four linked data sources using log-linear capture-recapture methods. Of 25 521 HCV-diagnosed individuals, 14 836 (58%) reported IDU risk with their HCV diagnosis. Log-linear modelling estimated a further 2484 HCV-diagnosed individuals with IDU risk, giving an estimated prevalence of 83. Stratified analyses indicated variation across birth cohort, with estimated prevalence as low as 49% in persons born before 1960 and greater than 90% for those born since 1960. These findings provide public-health professionals with a more complete profile of Scotland's HCV-infected population in terms of transmission route, which is essential for targeting educational, prevention and treatment interventions.
AB - SUMMARY In countries maintaining national hepatitis C virus (HCV) surveillance systems, a substantial proportion of individuals report no risk factors for infection. Our goal was to estimate the proportion of diagnosed HCV antibody-positive persons in Scotland (1991-2010) who probably acquired infection through injecting drug use (IDU), by combining data on IDU risk from four linked data sources using log-linear capture-recapture methods. Of 25 521 HCV-diagnosed individuals, 14 836 (58%) reported IDU risk with their HCV diagnosis. Log-linear modelling estimated a further 2484 HCV-diagnosed individuals with IDU risk, giving an estimated prevalence of 83. Stratified analyses indicated variation across birth cohort, with estimated prevalence as low as 49% in persons born before 1960 and greater than 90% for those born since 1960. These findings provide public-health professionals with a more complete profile of Scotland's HCV-infected population in terms of transmission route, which is essential for targeting educational, prevention and treatment interventions.
KW - Capture-recapture analysis
KW - Hepatitis C
KW - Injecting drug users (IDUs)
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84890079699&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1017/S0950268813000617
DO - 10.1017/S0950268813000617
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84890079699
SN - 0950-2688
VL - 142
SP - 200
EP - 207
JO - Epidemiology & Infection
JF - Epidemiology & Infection
IS - 1
ER -