Evaluating the social benefits and network costs of heat pumps as an energy crisis intervention

Fuel poverty, a pressing issue affecting social prosperity, has been exacerbated during the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This problem can be more severe for off-gas regions. Our study investigates heat pumps (HPs) as a cost-effective alternative to off-gas heating to alleviate fuel poverty in England and Scotland. We analyze regional fuel poverty rates and the associated greenhouse gas emission reduction by replacing all off-gas heating with HPs, observing positive effects under pre-crisis and crisis conditions, with existing government support for HP upfront costs. HP rollout can burden distribution networks especially for certain regions, but our correlation analysis shows that high benefits do not always come with network costs at the regional level, and we identify "priority" regions with low costs and high benefits. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to address fuel poverty and reach decarbonization. The methodology is adaptable to other countries with appropriate datasets.