Evolution and Outlook of the Syrian Crisis

The current shape of the Syrian crisis derives from three key developments witnessed in 2013. Two of them directly strengthened the Assad regime after a succession of military setbacks: first, the growing in- volvement of foreign Shia militias such as the Leba- nese Hezbollah on the side of loyalist forces, starting with the battle for al-Qusayr in the spring; second, the United States’ decision to respond diplomati- cally, rather than militarily, to the chemical attack car- ried out in Damascus in August.