Forecasting Intermittent Demand by Hyperbolic-Exponential Smoothing

Steven Prestwich, S Armagan Tarim, Roberto Rossi, Brahim Hnich

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Croston’s method is generally viewed as being superior to exponential smoothing when the demand is intermittent, but it has the drawbacks of bias and an inability to deal with obsolescence, where the demand for an item ceases altogether. Several variants have been reported, some of which are unbiased on certain types of demand, but only one recent variant addresses the problem of obsolescence. We describe a new hybrid of Croston’s method and Bayesian inference called Hyperbolic-Exponential Smoothing, which is unbiased on non-intermittent and stochastic intermittent demand, decays hyperbolically when obsolescence occurs, and performs well in experiments.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)928-933
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2014


  • Intermittent demand
  • Croston’s method
  • Bayesian inference


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