TY - JOUR
T1 - Future impacts of O3 on respiratory hospital admission in the UK from current emissions policies
AU - Macintyre, Helen L.
AU - Mitsakou, Christina
AU - Vieno, Massimo
AU - Heal, Mathew R.
AU - Heaviside, Clare
AU - Exley, Karen S
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Environmental Change (NIHR200909), a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University College London, and the Met Office, and the HPRU in Environmental Exposures and health, a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency and the University of Leicester. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR, the UK Health Security Agency, or the Department of Health and Social Care. We acknowledge health data from ONS, Public Health Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistical and Research Agency (NISRA), dhcw.nhs.wales, and population data from the National Population Database, and UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. The work of the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology was supported through funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs under the contract “Research & Development Support for National Air Pollution Control Strategies (ECM: 62041) 2021 to 2024” and builds upon research supported by the Natural Environment Research Council award number NE/R016429/1 as part of the UK-SCAPE programme delivering National Capability. CH is supported by a NERC fellowship (NE/R01440X/1) and acknowledges funding for the HEROIC project (216035/Z/19/Z) from the Wellcome Trust.
Funding Information:
This research was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Environmental Change (NIHR200909), a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University College London, and the Met Office, and the HPRU in Environmental Exposures and health, a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency and the University of Leicester. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR, the UK Health Security Agency, or the Department of Health and Social Care. We acknowledge health data from ONS, Public Health Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistical and Research Agency (NISRA), dhcw.nhs.wales, and population data from the National Population Database, and UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. The work of the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology was supported through funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs under the contract “Research & Development Support for National Air Pollution Control Strategies (ECM: 62041) 2021 to 2024” and builds upon research supported by the Natural Environment Research Council award number NE/R016429/1 as part of the UK-SCAPE programme delivering National Capability. CH is supported by a NERC fellowship (NE/R01440X/1) and acknowledges funding for the HEROIC project (216035/Z/19/Z) from the Wellcome Trust.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s)
PY - 2023/6/30
Y1 - 2023/6/30
N2 - Exposure to ambient ozone (O3) O3 is associated with impacts on human health. O3 is a secondary pollutant whose concentrations are determined inter alia by emissions of precursors such as oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and thus future health burdens depend on policies relating to climate and air quality. While emission controls are expected to reduce levels of PM2.5 and NO2 and their associated mortality burdens, for secondary pollutants like O3 the picture is less clear. Detailed assessments are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of future impacts to support decision-makers. We simulate future O3 across the UK using a high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry model with current UK and European policy projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050, and use UK regional population-weighting and latest recommendations on health impact assessment to quantify respiratory emergency hospital admissions associated with short-term effects of O3. We estimate 60,488 admissions in 2018, increasing by 4.2%, 4.5% and 4.6% by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (assuming a fixed population). Including future population growth, estimated emergency respiratory hospital admissions are 8.3%, 10.3% and 11.7% higher by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Increasing O3 concentrations in future are driven by reduced nitric oxide (NO) in urban areas due to reduced emissions, with increases in O3 mainly occurring in areas with lowest O3 concentrations currently. Meteorology influences episodes of O3 on a day-to-day basis, although a sensitivity study indicates that annual totals of hospital admissions are only slightly impacted by meteorological year. While reducing emissions results in overall benefits to population health (through reduced mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2), due to the complex chemistry, as NO emissions reduce there are associated local increases in O3 close to population centres that may increase harms to health.
AB - Exposure to ambient ozone (O3) O3 is associated with impacts on human health. O3 is a secondary pollutant whose concentrations are determined inter alia by emissions of precursors such as oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and thus future health burdens depend on policies relating to climate and air quality. While emission controls are expected to reduce levels of PM2.5 and NO2 and their associated mortality burdens, for secondary pollutants like O3 the picture is less clear. Detailed assessments are necessary to provide quantitative estimates of future impacts to support decision-makers. We simulate future O3 across the UK using a high spatial resolution atmospheric chemistry model with current UK and European policy projections for 2030, 2040 and 2050, and use UK regional population-weighting and latest recommendations on health impact assessment to quantify respiratory emergency hospital admissions associated with short-term effects of O3. We estimate 60,488 admissions in 2018, increasing by 4.2%, 4.5% and 4.6% by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively (assuming a fixed population). Including future population growth, estimated emergency respiratory hospital admissions are 8.3%, 10.3% and 11.7% higher by 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively. Increasing O3 concentrations in future are driven by reduced nitric oxide (NO) in urban areas due to reduced emissions, with increases in O3 mainly occurring in areas with lowest O3 concentrations currently. Meteorology influences episodes of O3 on a day-to-day basis, although a sensitivity study indicates that annual totals of hospital admissions are only slightly impacted by meteorological year. While reducing emissions results in overall benefits to population health (through reduced mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 and NO2), due to the complex chemistry, as NO emissions reduce there are associated local increases in O3 close to population centres that may increase harms to health.
KW - health burdens
KW - ozone
KW - air pollution modelling
KW - Hospital admissions
KW - future emissions scenarios
U2 - 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108046
DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108046
M3 - Article
SN - 0160-4120
VL - 178
SP - 1
EP - 9
JO - Environment International
JF - Environment International
M1 - 108046
ER -