Global trends in ultraprocessed food and drink product sales and their association with adult body mass index trajectories

Stefanie Vandevijvere, Lindsay M Jaacks, Carlos A Monteiro, Jean-Claude Moubarac, Martin Girling-Butcher, Arier C Lee, An Pan, James Bentham, Boyd Swinburn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This study evaluated global trends in ultraprocessed food and drink (UPFD) volume sales/capita and associations with adult body mass index (BMI) trajectories. Total food/drink volume sales/capita from Euromonitor for 80 countries (2002-2016) were matched to mean adult BMI from the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (2002-2014). Products were classified as UPFD/non-UPFD according to the NOVA classification system. Mixed models for repeated measures were used to analyse associations between UPFD volume sales/capita and adult BMI trajectories, controlling for confounding factors. The increase in UPF volume sales was highest for South and Southeast Asia (67.3%) and North Africa and the Middle East (57.6%), while for UPD, the increase was highest for South and Southeast Asia (120.0%) and Africa (70.7%). In 2016, baked goods were the biggest contributor to UPF volume sales (13.1%-44.5%), while carbonated drinks were the biggest contributor to UPD volume sales (40.2%-86.0%). For every standard deviation increase (51 kg/capita, 2002) in UPD volume sales, mean BMI increased by 0.195 kg/m2 for men (P < .001) and 0.072 kg/m2 for women (P = .003). For every standard deviation (40 kg/capita, 2002) increase in UPF volume sales, mean BMI increased by 0.316 kg/m2 for men (P < .001), while the association was not significant for women. Increases in UPFD volume sales/capita were positively associated with population-level BMI trajectories.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)10-19
Number of pages10
JournalObesity Reviews
Volume20 Suppl 2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2019

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