Green bubbles: A four-stage paradigm for detection and propagation

Climate change has emerged as a significant global concern that is attracting increasing attention worldwide. Although green bubbles may be examined through a social bubble hypothesis, it is essential not to neglect a “Climate Minsky” moment triggered by sudden asset price changes. The significant increase in green investments highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of these market dynamics. Therefore, the present paper introduces a novel paradigm for studying such phenomena.

Focusing on the renewable energy sector, change point detection models are employed to identify green bubbles within time series data. Furthermore, search volume indexes and social factors are incorporated into established econometric models to reveal potential implications for the financial system. Inspired by Joseph Schumpeter’s perspectives on business cycles, this study recognizes green bubbles as a “necessary evil” for facilitating a successful transition towards a more sustainable future.