Grey matter changes can improve the prediction of schizophrenia in subjects at high risk

Dominic E. Job; Heather C. Whalley; Andrew M. McIntosh; David G. C. Owens; Eve C. Johnstone; Stephen M. Lawrie

doi:10.1186/1741-7015-4-29

Grey matter changes can improve the prediction of schizophrenia in subjects at high risk

Dominic E. Job^*, Heather C. Whalley, Andrew M. McIntosh, David G. C. Owens, Eve C. Johnstone, Stephen M. Lawrie

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that subjects at familial high risk of developing schizophrenia would have a reduction over time in grey matter, particularly in the temporal lobes, and that this reduction may predict schizophrenia better than clinical measurements.

METHODS: We analysed magnetic resonance images of 65 high-risk subjects from the Edinburgh High Risk Study sample who had two scans a mean of 1.52 years apart. Eight of these 65 subjects went on to develop schizophrenia an average of 2.3 years after their first scan.

RESULTS: Changes over time in the inferior temporal gyrus gave a 60% positive predictive value (likelihood ratio >10) of developing schizophrenia compared to the overall 13% risk in the cohort as a whole.

CONCLUSION: Changes in grey matter could be used as part of a predictive test for schizophrenia in people at enhanced risk for familial reasons, particularly for positive predictive power, in combination with other clinical and cognitive predictive measures, several of which are strong negative predictors. However, because of the limited number of subjects, this test requires independent replication to confirm its validity.

Original language	English
Article number	29
Number of pages	4
Journal	BMC Medicine
Volume	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-4-29
Publication status	Published - 7 Dec 2006

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

EDINBURGH HIGH-RISK
PSYCHOTIC SYMPTOMS
BRAIN
PEOPLE
ISSUES

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10.1186/1741-7015-4-29

Grey matter changes can improve the prediction of schizophrenia in subjects at high risk
© 2006 Job et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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title = "Grey matter changes can improve the prediction of schizophrenia in subjects at high risk",

abstract = "BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that subjects at familial high risk of developing schizophrenia would have a reduction over time in grey matter, particularly in the temporal lobes, and that this reduction may predict schizophrenia better than clinical measurements.METHODS: We analysed magnetic resonance images of 65 high-risk subjects from the Edinburgh High Risk Study sample who had two scans a mean of 1.52 years apart. Eight of these 65 subjects went on to develop schizophrenia an average of 2.3 years after their first scan.RESULTS: Changes over time in the inferior temporal gyrus gave a 60\% positive predictive value (likelihood ratio >10) of developing schizophrenia compared to the overall 13\% risk in the cohort as a whole.CONCLUSION: Changes in grey matter could be used as part of a predictive test for schizophrenia in people at enhanced risk for familial reasons, particularly for positive predictive power, in combination with other clinical and cognitive predictive measures, several of which are strong negative predictors. However, because of the limited number of subjects, this test requires independent replication to confirm its validity.",

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author = "Job, \{Dominic E.\} and Whalley, \{Heather C.\} and McIntosh, \{Andrew M.\} and Owens, \{David G. C.\} and Johnstone, \{Eve C.\} and Lawrie, \{Stephen M.\}",

year = "2006",

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doi = "10.1186/1741-7015-4-29",

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T1 - Grey matter changes can improve the prediction of schizophrenia in subjects at high risk

AU - Job, Dominic E.

AU - Whalley, Heather C.

AU - McIntosh, Andrew M.

AU - Owens, David G. C.

AU - Johnstone, Eve C.

AU - Lawrie, Stephen M.

PY - 2006/12/7

Y1 - 2006/12/7

N2 - BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that subjects at familial high risk of developing schizophrenia would have a reduction over time in grey matter, particularly in the temporal lobes, and that this reduction may predict schizophrenia better than clinical measurements.METHODS: We analysed magnetic resonance images of 65 high-risk subjects from the Edinburgh High Risk Study sample who had two scans a mean of 1.52 years apart. Eight of these 65 subjects went on to develop schizophrenia an average of 2.3 years after their first scan.RESULTS: Changes over time in the inferior temporal gyrus gave a 60% positive predictive value (likelihood ratio >10) of developing schizophrenia compared to the overall 13% risk in the cohort as a whole.CONCLUSION: Changes in grey matter could be used as part of a predictive test for schizophrenia in people at enhanced risk for familial reasons, particularly for positive predictive power, in combination with other clinical and cognitive predictive measures, several of which are strong negative predictors. However, because of the limited number of subjects, this test requires independent replication to confirm its validity.

AB - BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that subjects at familial high risk of developing schizophrenia would have a reduction over time in grey matter, particularly in the temporal lobes, and that this reduction may predict schizophrenia better than clinical measurements.METHODS: We analysed magnetic resonance images of 65 high-risk subjects from the Edinburgh High Risk Study sample who had two scans a mean of 1.52 years apart. Eight of these 65 subjects went on to develop schizophrenia an average of 2.3 years after their first scan.RESULTS: Changes over time in the inferior temporal gyrus gave a 60% positive predictive value (likelihood ratio >10) of developing schizophrenia compared to the overall 13% risk in the cohort as a whole.CONCLUSION: Changes in grey matter could be used as part of a predictive test for schizophrenia in people at enhanced risk for familial reasons, particularly for positive predictive power, in combination with other clinical and cognitive predictive measures, several of which are strong negative predictors. However, because of the limited number of subjects, this test requires independent replication to confirm its validity.

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JO - BMC Medicine

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Grey matter changes can improve the prediction of schizophrenia in subjects at high risk

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Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

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