Design: Interrupted time-series analysis of repeated cross-sectional time-series data.
Setting: Great Britain
Participants: 248,324 young people aged approximately 13 and 15, from three national surveys during the years 1998-2015.
Intervention: Unregulated growth of e-cigarette use (following the year 2010, until 2015).
Primary and Secondary outcome measures: Primary outcomes were prevalence of self-reported ever smoking and regular smoking. Secondary outcomes were attitudes towards smoking. Tertiary outcomes were ever use of cannabis and alcohol.
Results: In final models, no significant change was detected in the pre-existing trend for ever smoking (OR = 1.01; CI = 0.99 to1.03). There was a marginally significant slowing in the rate of decline for regular smoking (OR = 1.04; CI: 1.00 to1.08), accompanied by a larger slowing in the rate of decline of cannabis use (OR = 1.21, CI = 1.18 to1.25) and alcohol use (OR = 1.17; CI = 1.14 to1.19). In all models and subgroup analyses for smoking attitudes, an increased rate of decline was observed after 2010 (OR = 0.88; CI = 0.86 to 0.90). Models were robust to sensitivity analyses.
Conclusions: There was a marginal slowing in the decline in regular smoking during the period following 2010, when e-cigarettes were emerging but relatively unregulated. However, these patterns were not unique to tobacco use and the decline in the acceptability of smoking behaviour among youth accelerated during this time. These analyses provide little evidence that renormalisation of youth smoking was occurring during a period of rapid growth and limited regulation of e-cigarettes from 2011-2015.
|Number of pages||29|
|Early online date||1 Apr 2019|
|Publication status||E-pub ahead of print - 1 Apr 2019|
- electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes)
- Young People
- Time series analysis
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- Deanery of Molecular, Genetic and Population Health Sciences - Chair of Public Health
- Usher Institute - Chair of Public Health
- Centre for Population Health Sciences
Person: Academic: Research Active