Health Dynamics and Heterogeneous Life Expectancies

Jonna Olsson, Richard Foltyn

Research output: Working paper


In this paper, we provide improved estimates for age-dependent health transitions and survival probabilities for different subsamples of the US population. The estimated yearly transition matrices can be used in any life-cycle model where health and survival dynamics is of interest. The results show substantial heterogeneity in life expectancy in the population. For a 70-year-old man in excellent health, the probability of reaching his 80th birthday is around 75%, while the corresponding probability for a man in poor health is just below 40%. There is also substantial inequality in life expectancy between different educational groups. In the group with less than a high school degree, the life expectancy at the age of 50 is 75 years, while the average for those with some college education or more is 80 years. This difference is due to two factors. First, at the age of 50, overall health is worse in the group with lower education. Second, even conditional on health status, the health dynamics and survival probabilities for this group are worse also from the age of 50 and onwards. We estimate that the difference in life expectancy across education groups mainly stems from the worse health and survival dynamics after the age of 50.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2019

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