How Did the Great Recession Affect Inequalities in Entry to Tertiary Education? Evidence from 31 Countries

This study examines how macroeconomic conditions affect inequality of educational opportunity. Using longitudinal data from 30 European countries and the United States, we study the effect of changing unemployment rates on the extent of social inequality in postsecondary transitions in the period (2004-2016), which includes the Great Recession. The findings from multilevel models with country fixed effects show that rising unemployment rates tend to increase social inequalities in postsecondary enrolment, as youth from low-educated families have increased risk for exclusion from both employment and education, while the likelihood of enrolment slightly rises for youth from higher-educated families. Yet, economic downturns also incentivize youth whose parents have middle level of education to opt for postsecondary education, especially in contexts where tertiary education is more affordable. Our findings suggest that changing opportunity costs and economic insecurity are the relevant factors to explain changing inequalities in access to higher education during a recession.