How far can the Islamic State expand?

Following the recent killings of Egyptian Copts in Libya and the attack on Tunisia’s Bardo Museum, the ability of the Islamic State to further project its power and appeal in the Middle East and beyond has been much discussed. Whether such fears come to reality, however, will depend on two main factors. The first and most important of these will be the extent of the organisation’s resilience in the face US-led campaign against its strongholds in Iraq and Syria. The second concerns the specific context of each country in the region, with two key variables: the level of state stability, on the one hand, and the local strength of rival Jihadi groups like al-Qaeda, on the other hand.