IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture–recapture methodology

Gareth-Rhys Jones; Mathew Lyons; Nikolas Plevris; Philip W Jenkinson; Cathy Bisset; Christopher Burgess; Shahida Din; James Fulforth; Paul Henderson; Gwo-Tzer Ho; Kathryn Kirkwood; Colin Noble; Alan G Shand; David C Wilson; Ian DR Arnott; Charlie W Lees

doi:10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936

IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture–recapture methodology

Gareth-Rhys Jones, Mathew Lyons, Nikolas Plevris, Philip W Jenkinson, Cathy Bisset, Christopher Burgess, Shahida Din, James Fulforth, Paul Henderson, Gwo-Tzer Ho, Kathryn Kirkwood, Colin Noble, Alan G Shand, David C Wilson, Ian DR Arnott, Charlie W Lees

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract / Description of output

OBJECTIVE: IBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland.

DESIGN: We conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997–2018), IBD pathology coding (1990–2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009–2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997–2018) to identify ‘possible’ IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028.

RESULTS: In total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn’s disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture–recapture methods identified an additional 427 ‘missed’ cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a ‘true’ prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).

Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS: We report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1953-1960
Number of pages	8
Journal	Gut
Volume	68
Issue number	11
Early online date	11 Jul 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936
Publication status	Published - Nov 2019

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The Role of Epigenetics in the Regulation of the Intestinal Homeostasis and Inflammation
Bird, A.
UK-based charities
1/08/12 → 31/07/15
Project: Research

Charlie Lees
- Deanery of Molecular, Genetic and Population Health Sciences - Chair of Gastroenterology
- Centre for Genomic and Experimental Medicine
Person: Academic: Research Active

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@article{c4d3e6f9d59c42929553ce6ff03da1ec,

title = "IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture–recapture methodology",

abstract = "OBJECTIVE: IBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland.DESIGN: We conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997–2018), IBD pathology coding (1990–2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009–2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997–2018) to identify {\textquoteleft}possible{\textquoteright} IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028.RESULTS: In total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn{\textquoteright}s disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture–recapture methods identified an additional 427 {\textquoteleft}missed{\textquoteright} cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a {\textquoteleft}true{\textquoteright} prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age.CONCLUSIONS: We report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.",

author = "Gareth-Rhys Jones and Mathew Lyons and Nikolas Plevris and Jenkinson, {Philip W} and Cathy Bisset and Christopher Burgess and Shahida Din and James Fulforth and Paul Henderson and Gwo-Tzer Ho and Kathryn Kirkwood and Colin Noble and Shand, {Alan G} and Wilson, {David C} and Arnott, {Ian DR} and Lees, {Charlie W}",

note = "{\textcopyright} Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.",

year = "2019",

month = nov,

doi = "10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936",

language = "English",

volume = "68",

pages = "1953--1960",

journal = "Gut",

issn = "0017-5749",

publisher = "BMJ Publishing Group",

number = "11",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture–recapture methodology

AU - Jones, Gareth-Rhys

AU - Lyons, Mathew

AU - Plevris, Nikolas

AU - Jenkinson, Philip W

AU - Bisset, Cathy

AU - Burgess, Christopher

AU - Din, Shahida

AU - Fulforth, James

AU - Henderson, Paul

AU - Ho, Gwo-Tzer

AU - Kirkwood, Kathryn

AU - Noble, Colin

AU - Shand, Alan G

AU - Wilson, David C

AU - Arnott, Ian DR

AU - Lees, Charlie W

PY - 2019/11

Y1 - 2019/11

N2 - OBJECTIVE: IBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland.DESIGN: We conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997–2018), IBD pathology coding (1990–2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009–2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997–2018) to identify ‘possible’ IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028.RESULTS: In total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn’s disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture–recapture methods identified an additional 427 ‘missed’ cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a ‘true’ prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age.CONCLUSIONS: We report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.

AB - OBJECTIVE: IBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland.DESIGN: We conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997–2018), IBD pathology coding (1990–2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009–2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997–2018) to identify ‘possible’ IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028.RESULTS: In total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn’s disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture–recapture methods identified an additional 427 ‘missed’ cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a ‘true’ prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837).Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age.CONCLUSIONS: We report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.

U2 - 10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936

DO - 10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936

M3 - Article

C2 - 31300515

SN - 0017-5749

VL - 68

SP - 1953

EP - 1960

JO - Gut

JF - Gut

IS - 11

ER -

IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture–recapture methodology

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