Intermittency and obsolescence: A Croston method with linear decay

S. D. Prestwich, S. A. Tarim, R. Rossi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Only two forecasting methods have been designed specifically for intermittent demand with possible demand obsolescence: Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) and Hyperbolic-Exponential Smoothing (HES). When an item becomes obsolete the TSB forecasts decay exponentially while those of HES decay hyperbolically. Both types of decay continue to predict non-zero demand indefinitely, and it would be preferable for forecasts to become zero after a finite time. We describe a third method called Exponential Smoothing with Linear Decay that decays linearly to zero in finite time, is asymptotically the best method for handling obsolescence, and performs well in experiments on real and synthetic data.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)708-715
Number of pages8
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Volume37
Issue number2
Early online date3 Nov 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2021

Keywords

  • Croston's method
  • forecasting
  • intermittency
  • obsolescence

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