Is the Value Spread a Good Predictor of Stock Returns? UK Evidence

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Abstract / Description of output

This paper explores the predictive ability of the value spread in the UK. I replicate the US analysis of Liu and Zhang (2007) using UK data. In addition, I extend their work by exploring the predictive ability of the book-to-market, market-to-book and value spread on other size and value investment strategies, namely: large-caps only; small-caps minus large-caps (SML);value stocks only; growth stocks only; value stocks minus growth stocks (VMG) and a market portfolio that includes all stocks. The results are consistent with Liu and Zhang (2007) on the value spread. The value spread shows no predictive power for portfolio returns. Therefore, I show that the predictive power of book-to-market and market-to-book spreads depend on the portfolio formation strategies and the relative proportion of small-cap, large-cap, value and growth stocks in the portfolio.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)925-950
Number of pages26
JournalJournal of Business Finance and Accounting
Volume36
Issue number7-8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009

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