Land use dynamics and coastal management

Corentin M. Fontaine*, Mustafa Mokrech, Mark D.A. Rounsevell

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract / Description of output

Changes in climate risk are driven by a range of socio-economic factors, as well as the climatic drivers considered in Chaps. 2 and 3 . Exploring how the built environment might change over time is an essential element for assessing changing risks. This chapter presents and discusses two algorithm-based approaches used in the Tyndall Coastal Simulator to analyse local changes in residential and other urban land uses. The first approach uses multi-criteria analysis (MCA) to calculate spatial weights based on a number of attracting features such as transport, existing development, flood risk and proximity to the coast to identify the development patterns under different socio-economic futures. The second method uses agent-based modelling (ABM) to examine interactions between residential households and local planners as a demand-supply process that produces possible development patterns under different socio-economic futures. The core elements of this model are the location preferences of (changing) individual residential agents and the constraints imposed by planners through land-use policy.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationBroad Scale Coastal Simulation
Subtitle of host publicationNew Techniques to Understand and Manage Shorelines in the Third Millennium
PublisherSpringer Netherlands
Number of pages22
ISBN (Electronic)9789400752580
ISBN (Print)9789400752573
Publication statusPublished - 26 Aug 2015

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

  • Agent-based modelling
  • Algorithm-based modelling
  • Land-use change
  • Multi-criteria analysis
  • Urban development
  • Urban system dynamics


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