Land use dynamics and coastal management

Corentin M. Fontaine*, Mustafa Mokrech, Mark D.A. Rounsevell

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract / Description of output

Changes in climate risk are driven by a range of socio-economic factors, as well as the climatic drivers considered in Chaps. 2 and 3 . Exploring how the built environment might change over time is an essential element for assessing changing risks. This chapter presents and discusses two algorithm-based approaches used in the Tyndall Coastal Simulator to analyse local changes in residential and other urban land uses. The first approach uses multi-criteria analysis (MCA) to calculate spatial weights based on a number of attracting features such as transport, existing development, flood risk and proximity to the coast to identify the development patterns under different socio-economic futures. The second method uses agent-based modelling (ABM) to examine interactions between residential households and local planners as a demand-supply process that produces possible development patterns under different socio-economic futures. The core elements of this model are the location preferences of (changing) individual residential agents and the constraints imposed by planners through land-use policy.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationBroad Scale Coastal Simulation
Subtitle of host publicationNew Techniques to Understand and Manage Shorelines in the Third Millennium
PublisherSpringer Netherlands
Pages125-146
Number of pages22
ISBN (Electronic)9789400752580
ISBN (Print)9789400752573
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 26 Aug 2015

Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)

  • Agent-based modelling
  • Algorithm-based modelling
  • Land-use change
  • Multi-criteria analysis
  • Urban development
  • Urban system dynamics

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