Abstract / Description of output
Changes in climate risk are driven by a range of socio-economic factors, as well as the climatic drivers considered in Chaps. 2 and 3 . Exploring how the built environment might change over time is an essential element for assessing changing risks. This chapter presents and discusses two algorithm-based approaches used in the Tyndall Coastal Simulator to analyse local changes in residential and other urban land uses. The first approach uses multi-criteria analysis (MCA) to calculate spatial weights based on a number of attracting features such as transport, existing development, flood risk and proximity to the coast to identify the development patterns under different socio-economic futures. The second method uses agent-based modelling (ABM) to examine interactions between residential households and local planners as a demand-supply process that produces possible development patterns under different socio-economic futures. The core elements of this model are the location preferences of (changing) individual residential agents and the constraints imposed by planners through land-use policy.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Broad Scale Coastal Simulation |
Subtitle of host publication | New Techniques to Understand and Manage Shorelines in the Third Millennium |
Publisher | Springer |
Pages | 125-146 |
Number of pages | 22 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 9789400752580 |
ISBN (Print) | 9789400752573 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 26 Aug 2015 |
Keywords / Materials (for Non-textual outputs)
- Agent-based modelling
- Algorithm-based modelling
- Land-use change
- Multi-criteria analysis
- Urban development
- Urban system dynamics