Macroeconomic impacts of global food price shocks on the economy of Turkey

Ayhan Kapusuzoglu, Xi Liang, Nildag Basak Ceylan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of food prices on the macroeconomic variables of Turkey. The effects are investigated using monthly data for the period January 1980–January 2016. A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is employed for the analysis. Impulse response functions are obtained to assess the impact of food price shocks on the macroeconomic variables of Turkey. To this end, SVAR model is employed as suggested by Cushman and Zha (1997). The impulse responses gathered suggest that the food price causes Turkish Lira (TRY) to appreciate and inflation to increase contemporaneously. This study provides an important contribution to the literature in terms of determining the factors and presenting the measures to be taken against these factors for Turkey which is a developing country and sensitive to macroeconomic factors.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)517-525
Number of pages9
JournalAgricultural Economics
Issue number11
Early online date6 Nov 2018
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 6 Nov 2018


  • agricultural commodity
  • economic variables
  • global market
  • structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR)


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